(meteorobs) tau-herculids, Meteor shower from 73P

[Skywayinc at aol.com]

In a message dated 5/18/2006 6:31:22 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
vaubaill at imcce.fr writes:

There is  indeed no "freshly" ejected fragment or whatever (=released 
since 1995)  going to hit the Earth this year from comet 73P, according 
to our  calculations. The reason is that the ejection velocity recquired 
to do  that is way higher than what can reasonably be.


Hi Jeremie --
 
No . . . when I inquired about the dust released from 73P after it  
fragmented 
in 1995, I was NOT making reference to its effects on Earth THIS  year.  What 
I 
was referring to was the possible interaction in the year 2022.  In  your 
graphic
for that year, you depict two "double pronged" dust trails from 1892 and  
1997 
that could possibly cause a meteor outburst.  
 
However, in a 2001 WGN article by Hartung Luthen, Rainer Arlt and Michael  
Jager,
they predict that the debris cloud that was shed after the comet broke  apart 
in 1995 should pass within 0.0004 a.u. of Earth on May 31, 2022.   I was just 
wondering if you had taken that 1995 dust cloud into consideration for  2022? 
 
 
That fact that you show trails from 1892 and 1897, but not 1995 seems to  
indicate 
that either you didn't -- or -- perhaps your calculations differ from  
Luthen, Arlt and Jager's.
 
Also . . . check your diagram for the Tau Herculids in 2039 . . . in your  
paper you 
indicate that the year for Earth interaction with the dust trail is in  2049. 
 
So which year is correct?
 
-- joe